There has been some good news reported recently regarding data on increasing house prices. Firstly Land Registry recorded an increase in June of 0.1% (England and Wales average), only a small increase but this is very positive news considering the previous months where Land Registry recorded decreases.
This was followed by a report from RightMove that property asking prices were increasing, and notably in London where they recorded an increase of over 1% in the average asking prices, however there were also reports that the increases were due to lack of properties for sale to satisfy the modest level of buyer demand.
We decided to carry out a small survey ourselves, to hear first hand what estate agents think about current house prices, our survey was small (6 companies in North London) but we had a 100% consensus. Every estate agent we spoke to said the same thing, there is a shortage of properties on the market which is pushing up asking prices or at least the vendors reluctant to drop. The estate agents were also reporting a lower level of completions, so for them the property market still has a long way to go.
It was an interesting survey, only a small sample but it did support the general view on house prices at the moment – asking prices generally going up. But, there is a clear underlying view that we that picked up, asking prices are only increasing due to lack of properties for sale, this is not a normal buying and selling market so caution still applies.
This last point is picked up when we look at mortgage lending. Banks are still not providing sufficient mortgages to meet buyer demand. Skiption Building Society’s recent report captures this, mortgage lending for the first 6 months of 2009 totalled £218 million, for the first 6 months of 2008 they provided £922 million in mortgages. That is a massive reduction of over 75% in mortgages provided. Skipton commented that raising funds for mortgages was challenging in the current market and this had affected their ability to lend.
So to sum all of this up….
There is now sufficient evidence to show that house prices are increasing. But they key underlying factor seems to be a lower level of sales. As long as would-be sellers do not rush to put their properties on the market we will maintain the supply-demand balance for house price stability. Equally if lenders start to increase the number of mortgages provided this will underpin the market and potentially help prices to start increasing again. Our view is that house prices will ease back again during the winter months, but we expect to see increases in average house prices during 2010.