Yesterday reports were published on mortgage completions which fell very slightly from 52,404 in July 2009 to 52,317 in August 2009. Commentators noted that this was the first monthly fall since November 2008, following which there had been steady monthly increases in mortgages completed.
All well and good, but the facts are the number of completions are still at an historic low. According to UK Government statistics there was an average of 136,000 completions per month during 2006 and 2007. And since the late 1990s the normal level of completions has averaged over 100,000 per month.
What this tells us is that we are still in a very abnormal property market, with mortgage completions at less than 50% of what is normal for this time of the year. There are probably two main factors for this historically low level of mortgage completions:
1 – People do not want to buy right now. Whilst this is difficult to determine without a large-scale survey, there may be some truth in this, whilst property prices may seem affordable to some, the worry of possible redundancy will clearly inhibit many from wanting to take on a new financial commitment.
2 – The banks simply are not lending to meet buyer demand. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence of this, news articles are published almost daily about cases where applicants are denied mortgages. With the high level of deposits required and increased “credit worthiness” requirements it seems easier for the average person to run a marathon than it is to get a mortgage from a bank.
Whilst we could not find factual data to support our view it seems that the most significant factor preventing a recovery in the property market is the inability of banks to lend.
We found some other interesting data published by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) which supports our views. Each month the CML publishes figures on gross mortgage lending, in effect the total number of mortgages provided. This is a better indicator to gauge banks performance in providing mortgages than the often published “net lending”, as it is not distorted by the amount of debt repaid in any one month – gross lending = the total mortgages provided.
So what does the gross mortgage data tell us? Based on CML statistics gross mortgages advanced in the 2 years prior to the credit crunch were averaging £30 billion per month, but so far in 2009 mortgages are averaging just £11.8 billion per month. Perhaps even more surprisingly, for August 2009 gross mortgages totalled £12.6 billion compared with £19.9 billion in August 2008, that is over 36% down on the same month last year.
Overall there is some pretty compelling data that clearly shows the property market transactions and in particular bank lending is far below where it needs to be to support a healthy market … there are enough would-be property buyers, its just that they are finding is extraordinarily difficult to obtain a mortgage!