Archive for February, 2010

Predicting property prices in 2010

February 26th, 2010

Nationwide have just announced a 1% fall in property prices for February 2010, this is after a period of over 9 months with reported increases, so what is happening, what is the prospect for property prices in 2010?

We have previously blogged about the weakness of the property market and that we are not in a normal market where any increases or decreases can be taken as predictors for future prices.  The fact is the volume of property sales is well below historical averages, this lends itself to more unpredictable property prices.

Other factors also come into play, in particular the restoration of stamp duty thresholds on 1st January 2010.  Such changes in an already thin market have a more pronounced effect on property prices.

But key for most of us will be future property prices.  Unfortunately it is tough to predict, as we highlighted in our blog post about property prices in October last year.  The key factor for 2010 will be the election, who gets in power and what actions will they take to address the UK’s economic issues.  Whilst we are not in the same precarious situation as Greece we do have challenges to face, and how we face them will impact property prices.

So, back to the heading of this post, predicting property prices in 2010.  The fact is this year will probably be one of the most difficult to predict, because we have so many unknowns with the pending election.  Our best guess is that prices will be relatively flat in 2010, some months of increase, some of decrease.  Time will tell!

Estate Agents, we love them, don’t we?

February 24th, 2010

How many times have you driven down the street to see for sale signs? The answer is probably often, even in these tough times for the property market people are still managing to sell their properties, albeit often after a long wait.

These for sale signs are of course great advertising for the local estate agents, many of who are desperate to make sales in what is a very slow market for them.  With lower revenues many estate agents are also getting ever more creative on their advertising trying to increase exposure at a lower cost. 

So what is the canny estate agent doing now? Well we have received many reports of “fly boarding”, this is where the estate agent places their for sale board outside (typically) a block of flats.  Well, who in the flats would know?  In some cases we have reports of 10 or more estate agent boards placed outside a large block of flats. 

Many flat residents are getting wise to the “fly boarding” as they speak to others in the block and managing agents.  Maybe the best solution is for managing agents to impose a rule, any for sale board has to be placed with their approval, that way it should be easier to control some of the more “eager” estate agents … but we do love them, don’t we?

If you are a victim of fly boarding then you can also report the estate agent to your local trading standards who will often be willing to take up prosecutions against the offenders.

Reducing the UKs national debt, we have the answer!

February 15th, 2010

Well, maybe not quite THE answer but we have some thoughts and ideas on this subject.

Firstly there is pretty much a unanimous view amongst the major political parties that we have to reduce national debt.  But equally there is also a consensus that we cannot reduce debt too quickly such that we enter into a situation where we plunge the economy into the deep and prolonged recession (or depression).

In effect it is a balancing act, how do we reduce national debt quickly enough without creating a prolonged recession?  There is no easy answer to this, otherwise our politicians would be less reticent about giving us clear information on how they intend to deal with the UK’s debt problems.

Well, as we don’t have to stand for election it is probably easier for the editors at the house4sale blog to make some comments and suggestions, and who knows we might even spark some ideas for our political masters … ok, maybe we are getting a little carried away :-)

So here are 5 suggestions:

1 – Increase taxes on those areas that are less harmful to the UK economy. For example, tax goods where there is a very high percentage of imports, white goods, plasma TVs and the like may fall into this category.  This isn’t an import duty, this is an additional tax on sales that targets a product category, thus increasing tax revenues without contravening international trade conventions.

2 – Reduce final salary pension commitments in the public sector.  Whilst we feel it would be unfair to reduce payments for those already receiving pensions maybe increasing focus on those who have not yet retired is to be considered.

3 – Increase the retirement age immediately, maybe not making it compulsory for the next 5 years but at least giving people the opportunity to choose to keep on working. 

4 – Stop funding university places for degrees that do not improve the economy.  For example do we really need degree courses in wind surfing? And just how many degree courses in media studies should the tax payer fund?

5 – Cut back on benefits.  According to Government statistics we have over 8 million people of working age that are “economically inactive”, this compares with 28 million employed.  To put it another way over 1 in 5 people of working age are potentially claiming benefits. Every £1000 per person saved in benefits equates to £8 billion p.a.

Some of these are tough measures, but we have to take tough decisions if we are to at least maintain future living standards. Taking no action is not an option.

UK’s credit rating expected to remain at AAA

February 10th, 2010

Today the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, announced that inflation may exceed 3% in the short term but will quickly drop back to less than 2%.  The main reason for this was the recent increase in VAT.

Mervyn King also added that the recovery in the UK economy will be slower than some had originally been forecasting.  He also went on to discuss UK’s AAA credit rating and saw no reason why this should change, but his speech contained a caveat regarding the election and what a future Government may seek to do.  In Mervyn King’s words, the AAA rating was ours to lose.

So why is the AAA rating so important to the UK economy?  There are two key and related factors here.

Firstly, the cost of UK borrowing would increase substantially if the credit rating was to fall below AAA.  Put simply the higher the perceived risk the higher the interest rate on borrowing.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the effect of a fall in UK’s AAA credit rating would increase interest rates.  Higher interest rates, especially at a time of weak economic growth would slow the growth down even further and quite possibly create a longer recession.

So, it is good news to hear that UK’s AAA rating is “ours to lose”, let’s hope whoever gets elected looks after our credit rating!

Property fraud, part 3 – Updating Land Registry

February 4th, 2010

Details temporarily removed, to be added later.