Nationwide have just reported a 0.9% increase in property prices for September 2009, the fifth month in a row that increases in property prices have been reported. Is it time for property buyers to move in?
Whilst it is comforting to many that the spiral of price falls seems to have abated and that maybe, just maybe, we are starting to see some upward movement there still needs to be caution applied by anyone looking to buy.
Firstly we have still to see further rises in unemployment, this will certainly have an effect on house prices, particularly in those areas that will be most affected by higher unemployment levels.
Secondly, we have some fairly significant budget cuts to feed through into the economy. Whilst at the time of writing this blog there has not been any clear indication from the government on the severity of cuts, there seems to be almost a consensus amongst economists that significant cuts in spending will happen. The phasing and timing of these cuts will have an impact on property prices.
Thirdly, all of the data reported in 2009 on property price movements is based on an “abnormal market”, that is mortgage lending is over 50% down on the historical normal levels. Until the market is more fluid we will not know the true effects of buyer and seller demand, and thus the impact on property prices.
Overall there is no need for panic, but equally anyone who thinks prices are about to boom is very unlikely to realise this. The facts are we are still in uncertain times, the property market has stabilised to some degree, but property prices are still vulnerable to many economic effects yet to unfold.