Banks may be split up?

January 22nd, 2011 No comments »

There are reports that the UK independent commission reviewing the banking system is now considering not only the splitting up of banks but also the separation of retail and investment banking – the latter of which we think is a great idea!

As a consumer when you put money in a deposit account you get a modest rate of interest in return for your low risk deposit, and when you put money into an investment scheme you potentially get  a high rate of interest and with it much more risk.  But here is the oddity, the banks can take your low interest deposit money and then invest that money at higher risk, they make increased profit on the margin, and if it goes wrong you potentially lose your deposit or the tax payer ends up paying compensation.  Surely this is wrong and the banking system has to be changed, low risk deposit accounts should be just that, low risk.

Of course this example is an over simplification, but it highlights the risks the ordinary deposit account holders take, along with the tax payer as guarantor, for any adverse risky investment decisions taken by the “investment arm” of a bank.

Lets hope the bank commission comes up with a solution that protects the consumer and tax payer, but at the same time does not cause the banks to relocate overseas … whatever action is taken needs to have an international dimension to ensure there is a level playing field.

Are house prices set to surge?

January 18th, 2011 No comments »

According to a news article published in the Express today there are expectations of a house price surge in spring 2011.

But it all depends what is meant by “surge”.  The article does not give any predictions, its focus is more on the balance of opinion amongst surveyors that prices will increase this spring. 

One of the factors given for the spring increase is a shortage of quality housing available for sale.  Thus it only takes a small increase in demand, when combined with shortage of supply, for prices to increase.

The fact is however that houses prices tend to follow a seasonal pattern in that spring is traditionally a period where prices rise (relatively).  But in a declining market as we have seen recently a rise in prices this spring will correct the falls over the winter, the real question is will prices increase over the full year of 2011? 

A longer term sustainable increase in property prices may still be some time away as there are many factors at play here.  If you would like to read more about factors that influence property prices read our 2009 article on house price predictions.

Bank base rate projection for 2011 and 2012

January 13th, 2011 No comments »

We have reviewed comments from many of the UK’s leading businesses and economists to try and determine the consolidated view for bank base rates in 2011 and 2012.

The historically low bank base rates of been of great benefit to borrowers and in particular those with loans and mortgages that track bank base rate (BBR).  The low BBR means that many consumers have more to spend due to lower cost of borrowing, this is a key consideration as the Government fiscal squeeze starts to have greater impact in 2011.

Most of the experts are pointing toward an increase in the latter part of 2011, probably in Q4, 2011.  The size of this increase seems to be around 0.25% to 0.5% based on the views of the majority of reports and comments we have read.

A key consideration is that any increase does not cause the economy to go back into recession.  Another factor is that wage inflation needs to be held back, should it start to rise significantly then BBR may have to increase further to counter inflationary effects.

Moving into 2012 many of the experts see some further increases (few mention figures) and give the indication that by the end of 2012 BBR will still be well below the historical norm.  This would suggest BBR perhaps at no more than 2% by end of 2012?  As we say, few are willing to mention specific figures as there are too many variables, the 2% figure is therefore difficult to forecast with any confidence.

Interestingly we found many experts of the opinion that lower BBR will be a factor for a considerable period, possibly another 3 or maybe 4 years.  Forecasting this far out is increasingly difficult but this must be good news for those with mortgages.

Falling property prices and increasing rents?

January 7th, 2011 No comments »

It may seem an unusual combination but there have been increasing reports of property prices falling and at the same time increases in rents. Why is this the case and can it continue?

Firstly it is worth looking at rental yields.  Over the last 5 to 10 years rental yields have fallen to a level where for much of the South East UK a yield of 5% was typical (although yields where higher in some areas such as North East UK).

In part the low 5% yield was down to property prices being driven upward whilst at the same time the rental market was effectively capped by affordability, thus as house prices increased rental yields fell.

[By the way, if you need to carry out tenant checks a small plug here for Credit Check Services]

Now we have a situation where the recessionary impact on rents has eased allowing rents to increase in some areas.  At the same time property prices have fallen.  The upshot is that rental yields of 6% are now becoming more common in the South East.  But what about the longer term?

In the medium term there will be some negative impact on rents due to housing benefit changes but there are longer term upward pressures on rents, in particular two;

  1. Mortgage financing is becoming more difficult, and with international agreements for banks to increase liquid assets (Basel III) this shows no sign of abating. This could mean an increasing proportion of the UK population turning to tenancies rather than home ownership.
  2. There is a growing UK population which is not being matched by an increase in new homes being built.  This will create an increased demand for housing and thus tenancies.

The upshot is in the medium term there does seem to be a trend of falling house prices and increasing rents.  But in the longer term property prices will start to rise but we will probably see improved rental yields compared with the last decade.

Will property prices fall again?

November 10th, 2010 No comments »

This is a question asked by many, and whilst there is no clear answer there are certainly some factors coming into play. 

1 – The growth in the global economy.  Many local economies, such as the UK, depend very much on global economic growth.  The negative factor coming into play here is the trade protectionism which could damage UK economic growth and with it impact UK property prices.

2 – Finance availability.  There is an increasing requirement for banks to improve their liquidity which in turn restricts what they have to lend.  The upshot is less finance for mortgages means it becomes even harder to buy a property.

3 – Rent capping for those on benefits.  Whilst many would agree with the UK approach here it should have a medium term impact as reduced market rents will reduce values for buy-to-let properties in some areas.

4 – Increased unemployment.  It is now becoming much more clear as to the effects of the austerity measures and the increased unemployment that will result.  The net effect of this will again be to put downward pressure on property prices.

Above are just some of the factors, but it starts to paint a picture, the balance seems  to suggest the there will be downward pressure on property prices in the medium term.

Employee Screening and Tenant Checks

August 21st, 2010 No comments »

It is becoming increasingly common for employers and landlords to carry out employment screening and tenant checks before hiring or letting a property. For tenants these checks include searches for financial problems such as CCJs or bankruptcy, previous landlord referencing, risk evaluation scores, etc.  For employers the screening goes even further and can include criminal record checks, all previous employment history, driving licence checks, and more.

Specialist companies such as CREDIT CHECK SERVICES provide screening to landlords and employers, often within one working day, and with pricing from less than £10 it makes sense to check a prospective tenant.

Within the next 5 years it is projected the majority of employers and landlords will obtain specialist screening reports on prospective employees or tenants. 

So as an employee or tenant what should you do?  Well, first and foremost start managing your financial history, don’t see CCJs as a minor inconvenience, if you do have a debt problem agree a payment plan rather than letting it go to the court for enforcement.

Managing your credit profile is not only to enable you to obtain credit form banks, increasingly it will affect your ability to rent a property and gain employment.

The medicine needed for the UK economy?

April 24th, 2010 No comments »

Almost everyone agrees that the UK economy is in a very poor state, the problem is that our political parties cannot agree, at least in public, on the measures needed to get recovery going for the longer term.

Within 5 years the UK debt is forecasted to grow to £1.4 trillion, that is a staggering 1400 billion pounds.  Reducing debt can only be done through increasing income (eg tax revenues) or reducing expenditure (eg cuts in public spending), or a combination of both.

For an income approach the dilemma is this, if you focus only on the income side, that is raising taxes, it will effectively choke off the economy as the burden of huge tax increases will impact employment and spending, and if unemployment increases too much it will effectively reduce taxable income and worse still increase public spending on unemployment benefits.

For a spending cuts approach, again too much focus will have a negative impact.  Cuts in spending will ultimately lead to cuts in employment and in turn cuts in income from tax revenues. 

Clearly a balanced approach is needed, that is focus on BOTH spending cuts and tax increases.  There are no easy choices here but some thoughts are:

1 – Raise VAT by 2.5%, this will raise over £10 billion per year.

2 – Cut wasted spending, but focus more on spending that has less impact on UK employment.  Examples may be projects such national ID cards.

3 –  Provide greater encouragement for people to go out to work by reducing benefits paid.  There are many opportunities with almost 6 million “economically” inactive people being supported on benefits.

Clearly these are just simplistic headings but getting the economy back on track is about combined measures of increasing taxes and cutting expenditure in a way that is sustainable so as not to push the economy back into recession.

Expenses scandal MPs get legal aid, poor mother of 3 refused legal aid

April 12th, 2010 No comments »

It is bizarre how our legal processes in the UK do not deliver fairness in the way legal aid is applied, here is a clear example:

Today it was announced that three labour MPs facing court action for allegedly defrauding the tax payer will now have legal aid to represent them at the tax payer’s expense, and it has been estimated the legal fees could escalate to as much as £3 million.

Now take the situation of a mother with 3 young daughters, stranded in France by her ex-husband (a German national).  Unable to get a job in France to support her family she applied to return to the UK with her British daughters.  She then found that her ex husband took legal action to prevent her living in the UK with the children.  She applied for legal aid, which was denied.  She now has debts of more then £20,000 after successfully defending her right to have her children living with her in the UK.

It is quite bizarre that our legal system in the UK will support alleged “wrong doers” of considerable wealth whilst a poor mother is unable to get legal aid to help keep her family together.

UK national debt is at very dangerous levels

March 25th, 2010 No comments »

In recent months all of our politicians have failed to really grasp the nettle and really outline the size of UK’s debt and how it is going to be addressed.

The figure revealed in the details of the March 2010 budget (not given airtime in the House of Commons) is £1.4 trillion.  That is 1,400 x £1 billion, or 1.4 million x £1 million.  It is a huge amount of debt.

Look at it another way, we currently have approximately 27 million people working and paying taxes.  The £1.4 trillion debt equates to almost £52,000 for every one of those 27 million tax payers.

Somehow the UK Government has to deal with the vast debt, somehow we, the British public, are going to pay off this debt through a combination of tax increases and cuts in services. 

Lets assume that the UK national debt is not cut and we stay at £1.4 trillion.  Today the interest rates are low, but it may be reasonable to assume in a few years time we could be paying as much as 5% on this debt, that would mean annual interest payments of £70 billion.

Prior to the credit crunch the UK was borrowing at a rate of less than £50 billion a year to fund the budget deficit.  So in “good times” we might assume we only need to borrow £50 billion a year.  But if we now add the possible annual interest of this vast £1.4 trillion debt we will need to borrow an additional £70 million a year, giving a total of £120 million a year including the annual budget deficit.

These figures are unworkable, unless the UK national debt is cut we could have a prolonged period of economic turmoil.  Whoever gets elected lets hope this issue of cutting UK’s debt gets more attention.

The UK economy and strikes

March 23rd, 2010 No comments »

Following the high profile campaign of Unite in its conflict with British Airways there are now other companies including British Gas where the threat of strikes loom.

What is it with the union culture, are they led by egotistical union management who like to flex their muscles and show their membership that they are worth their vast wages? 

Or maybe there really is unfairness on part of the companies such as British Airways in their treatment of staff?

A straw pole of people we have spoken with suggest that the majority of people do not support the strikers who in many cases are very well paid, not forgetting the 4 million plus “economically inactive” people of working age who do not have a job.

In today’s world of employment legislation to protect the worker, and the increased flexibility for people to move jobs, do we really need unions to “fight the cause” of the worker? Moreover should such workers going on strike have the right to disrupt the lives of other hard working individuals through what some might see as a selfish action?

Jobs for life are no more, the vast majority of the working population will change jobs several times during their careers, so do we really need a protectionist and outdated union culture to stand up for “the worker”?

Going back to the specific case of British Airways.  The industry is hugely competitive and has undergone major change with the increase in low cost flights, it is clear the British Airways has to change its cost base, and sadly that will mean some redundancies, changes to working practices, etc.  Simply going on strike, disrupting the lives of many ordinary people and damaging the UK economy does not seem to be a sensible approach. 

To make matters worse our political system is affected by those who “sponsor” parties through “political donations”, as such the recipients of the donations are not in a position to act without bias against the hands that feed them – in this case the unions.

Lets hope common sense will soon prevail, if not the unions will gradually sink the British economy.